Why the Conspiracy Theory is Having a Moment
There is another virus in town and it’s highly contagious.
Why the conspiracy theory is having a moment
Despite, in our Coronavirus new world, only four people being allowed in my local Spar at a time, it turns out that three out of four shoppers (plus the cashier) have something in common. A firm belief that the Coronavirus is a man-made virus, created in a lab to get rid of the old people.
These otherwise, pretty ordinary looking citizens are the sort of people who’d laugh in your face if you happened to suggest that crop circles were the work of an artistic Martian with a penchant for spirals.
They’d probably scoff at the suggestion that Elvis faked his own death and give short shrift to any assertion that the moon landing was a clever stunt to shame the Russians, (if only they’d got the flag bit right)!!!. And yet, here I am in my local shop, surrounded by people convinced that we are all unsuspecting victims of a terrible, deliberate, attempt by government to save millions on social care.
But surely you ask, this is contradictory to the fact that the government is currently loosing billions propping up the economy? That the prime minister himself appears to have fallen foul of the virus? That it originated in China......
If you are applying logic then you are missing the point. Logic almost NEVER gets in the way of a good conspiracy theory. Indeed, it is perfectly possible for two or more contradictory conspiracy theories to be believed by the same person, at the same time, as demonstrated in in a study by psychologists Micheal Wood, Karen Douglas and Robbie Suton.
So why are otherwise sensible citizens so susceptible to the multiple Covid 19 conspiracy theories currently doing the rounds? Behavioural Science, (the science of human behaviour) can help us to interpret some of what we are seeing.
Uncertain times & the desire for meaning New, random and seemingly indiscriminate threats are hard to deal with. We feel powerless and out of control. Our innate desire for meaning will make us more susceptible to compelling theories, (no matter how illogical) especially when they make sense of things that are otherwise difficult to comprehend.
We are influenced by the herd If enough people believe something to be the case -then there must be something in it right? This is a particularly unreliable rule of thumb or ‘heuristic’ as behavioural scientists like to term it. In our social media rich, digitally connected world, conspiracies theories rapidly gain traction. The more they are shared and validated, (particularly by people we assume to be like us) the more credible a theory seems.
Low trust in authority Combine this with deepening suspicion of ‘experts’, low trust in politicians and the media and suddenly the, ‘voice of authority’ doesn’t provide much of a counterbalance. Even mere exposure to conspiracy theories can lead people to become doubtful of scientific theory leading them to absolve themselves of social responsibility. For example, participants in a recent study were exposed to conspiracy theories purporting that global warming is a hoax. These participants were far less willing to engage politically and to implement individual behavioural changes such as reducing their carbon footprint than the control group who were not exposed to any conspiracy theories.
Fundamental attribution error We possess a tendency to believe that the actions of others are always intentional rather than simply the product of (random) situational circumstances. Karl Popper argued that the fallacy of conspiracy theories lies in their tendency to describe every event as 'intentional' and 'planned' thereby seriously underestimating the random nature and unintended consequences of occurrences such as a novel, life threatening virus.
Confirmation bias Once established, even a thoroughly debunked conspiracies (For example: "Vaccines cause autism") are difficult to dislodge from the public consciousness. AND once we hold a particular viewpoint we tend to latch on to any new information that upholds or confirms our world view at the same time discounting or overlooking information that points to an opposite argument no matter how well substantiated.
So what can we do about it?
Just being aware that, as humans we are prone to bias’ and error can help to keep things in perspective. Next time you find yourself leaning towards a compelling but improbable theory – remind yourself that conspiracy theories feed off our fears. Take a deep breath and ask yourself (or your fellow shoppers) where are the facts? Where is the evidence that points to the opposite viewpoint and please, please think twice before you hit the ‘like’ or ‘share’ button.